3 Macro Trends That Matter for Your Portfolio
PLUS: Activity on L2s is booming
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In today's newsletter:
💡 3 macro trends that matter for your portfolio
📣 Travala.com integrates with Skyscanner
📈 Activity on L2s is booming
Let’s dive in!
💡 Insight
3 macro trends that matter for your portfolio
Following the macro trends can make a real impact on your portfolio.
Here are 3 macro trends you need to know:
1. Fed Should Cut Rates ✅
The market has priced for 100 basis points (bps) in Fed rate cuts by the end of 2024 and over 200 bps by the end of 2025 (the odds on Polymarket are 97% in favor of a rate cut by September).
Why It Matters:
Lower rates could lead to more investment in crypto, further boosting the market.
Higher interest rates mean people and institutions are pulling money out of riskier investments, and yes, that includes crypto. When rates are low, people are more likely to take chances on Bitcoin or altcoins.
2. Unemployment Is Still Far from Distressed Levels ✅
Labor market measures that focus on job losses are starting to pick up but are still far from levels that signal distress. As shown below, Job Losers (LHS) and Layoffs metrics (RHS) are still low.
Why It Matters:
Given the distortions of this cycle, these measures might be a more accurate tool to measure recession risks compared to a top-line unemployment rate.
Low unemployment → low recession risks → more capital into risky assets
3. Composite PMI is looking good ✅
The Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) combines data from the manufacturing and services sectors to gauge overall economic health. A PMI above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signals contraction.
→ Current level: 54.6
Why It Matters:
For investors, Composite PMI data is a key forward-looking indicator of economic activity and business confidence. Monitoring PMI helps investors anticipate economic turning points.
📣 News
Travala.com integrates with Skyscanner
Founded in 2017, Travala.com is the leading crypto-native travel booking service with 2,200,000+ properties in 230 countries, 400,000+ activities, and 600+ airlines globally.
The platform has integrated with the global travel marketplace Skyscanner.
The partnership allows Skyscanner’s 110 million monthly users who complete 80 billion searches every day to access Travala.com’s inventory of more than 2.2 million hotels, book and pay for them with more than 100 cryptocurrencies, in addition to traditional payment methods.
“Visibility is a crucial component of mass crypto adoption,” Travala.com CEO Juan Otero said. “By displaying Travala.com on one of the world’s most popular travel marketplaces in Skyscanner, we’re demonstrating the utility of crypto and showcasing it as an available option from the moment travelers make their very first search.”
📈 Signal
Activity on L2s is booming
The number of active wallets and weekly transactions is increasing, and DEX trading volumes have been rising for a year straight.
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